MUNZ: Who will win C-USA crown this year?

Conference USA is in store for change in 2017.

Western Kentucky’s mastery over the league will wane after back-to-back championships. To wit, Middle Tennessee will seize control in the East Division.

Louisiana Tech and Southern Miss will be successful this season. But it won’t be enough to keep up with UTSA in the West.

That means a pair of first-timers — according to my rudimentary calculations — will battle for the C-USA crown in December.

Before we go any further, let’s let the record reflect the rest of my predictions for how I expect the standings to shape up come November. We’ll start in the East:

Middle Tennessee (9-3 overall, 7-1 C-USA)
Old Dominion (8-4, 6-2)
WKU (8-4, 5-3)
Florida Atlantic (5-7, 4-4)
Marshall (5-7, 3-5)
Charlotte (5-7, 3-5)
Florida International (2-10, 1-7)

And now, the West:

UTSA (9-3, 7-1)
Southern Miss (8-4, 6-2)
Louisiana Tech (7-5, 5-3)
North Texas (6-6, 4-4)
UAB (4-8, 2-6)
UTEP (3-9, 2-6)
Rice (2-10, 1-7)

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ODU won’t make it easy for Middle Tennessee in the East. That race will probably be the most intriguing of the year in the whole league. But Marshall and WKU have run things in that division for so long that the new kids on the block will be refreshing — at least, from my perspective.

In the West, the Roadrunners took a big step forward last year, Frank Wilson’s first in San Antonio. UTSA finished 6-7 in 2016, with some good wins but also some puzzling losses. Losing running back Jarveon Williams will hurt, but Jalen Rhodes (827 rushing yards) is back and so are quarterback Dalton Sturm, the team’s top four receivers from a year ago and C-USA Freshman of the Year Josiah Tauaefa (linebacker).

WKU’s Hilltoppers will be competitive under first-year coach Mike Sanford, but the losses of playmakers Anthony Wales, Taywan Taylor, as well as four of their better defenders should open the door for MTSU.

The Blue Raiders get the dynamic duo of quarterback Brent Stockstill (3,233 yards and 31 touchdown passes in only 10 games in 2016, and my pick to win C-USA most valuable player honors in 2017) and do-it-all athlete Richie James (1,964 yards of total offense last year) back again. As long as those two stay healthy, MTSU should hold off the Monarchs.

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But ODU could make things interesting. Bobby Wilder’s got a dynamic duo of his own in the backfield in Ray Lawry and Jeremy Cox, who combined for almost 2,000 rushing yards a season ago.

I’ve got Southern Miss falling just short of the division title this season, mostly due to the question marks surrounding the offensive line and the quarterback position. The Golden Eagles figure to be vastly improved defensively (especially up front). And the team will trot out a deep stable of running backs and receivers, featuring my pick to win the league’s Offensive Player of the Year award, Ito Smith.

Will all that be enough to carry the team if the O-line struggles or whoever wins the starting quarterback job can’t handle it? We’ll see. I’m not as sure UTSA will win the West as I am that MTSU will take care of business in the East.

In the end, I look for the Roadrunners to prevail in December and capture the C-USA crown. 

Contact sports writer Jason Munz at 584-3107. Also, follow @munzly on Twitter. 

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